Modelagem de distribuição potencial das espécies bothrops muriciensis e physalaemus caete nas áreas protegidas de Alagoas

Abstract

Global climate change is transforming the scenario of environmental conditions, having a profound impact on the species distribution. The complexity of climate change and the variety of scales at which it occurs makes understanding these impacts challenging. As average temperatures increase and climate change occurs, species adapting to ensure their survival becomes more frequent. Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) represents a valuable tool in anticipating the survival of species, based on their environmental characteristics. This approach plays a fundamental role in conservation, providing a foundation for identifying areas susceptible to climate change and guiding the management of conservation regions. Furthermore, ENM plays a critical role in assessing the invasive potential of non-native species. It is important to recognize that developing countries, such as Brazil, face additional challenges in addressing the issues of climate change and biodiversity conservation, often due to a lack of financial resources. In this context, ENM can be an effective ally, allowing the efficient allocation of resources and the implementation of well-targeted conservation strategies. Thus, Protected Areas (PAs) play a fundamental role in conserving biodiversity at various scales. PAs offer protection to migratory species, help recover declining populations, and maintain native genetic diversity. They are vital for the conservation of threatened species, such as the snake Bothrops muriciensis and the amphibian Physalaemus caete. The current research sought to map the potential distribution of B. muriciensis and P. caete in the Alagoas PAs and assess the impact of climate change in these areas. Occurrence data was collected from sources, and distribution models were created based on climatic variables. The overlap of these models revealed greater suitability for P. caete in relation to B. muriciensis in Alagoas. This study aims to contribute to the conservation of species in a climate change scenario and highlights the importance of PAs and ENM in protecting biodiversity.