Mosca-branca aleurodicus pseudugesii martin, 2008 hemiptera: aleyrodidae: distribuição potencial atual e futura, e estimativa de risco econômico para a produção de coco cocos nucifera l. arecaceae no Brasil

Abstract

Severe infestations of the coconut palm Cocos nucifera L. (Arecaceae) by the whitefly Aleurodicus pseudugesii Martin, 2008 (Hemiptera: Sternorrhyncha: Aleyrodidae) have been reported in several municipalities in the Northeast region of Brazil. Due to the recent identification of this non-native species and its significance as a pest in Brazilian coconut cultivation, it is crucial to develop management strategies alongside the implementation of phytosanitary policies to prevent its spread and mitigate its impact. Ecological niche models are employed to quantify the relationship between known species occurrence records and environmental variables. Among these, Maxent is one of the most widely used algorithms for modeling species distribution. Data were compiled from biological and geographic databases and used to generate predictive maps of the current and future potential global distribution of the pest, as well as to assess its potential economic impact on coconut production in Brazil. The model indicated climatic suitability across all known distribution points of the species, demonstrating high model reliability. Results also revealed areas of overlap between the pest and key host plants under suitable climatic conditions. Future projections for A. pseudugesii show a slight reduction in climatically suitable areas; however, regions such as the Caribbean, the Americas, Africa, and Asia—which encompass the world's leading coconut producers—are expected to remain highly suitable through the end of the century under all scenarios. Brazilian regions with high economic dependence on coconut farming face an estimated potential economic loss of R$728 million per year due to the pest, representing 52% of the country’s annual coconut production value. Among the thirty most economically affected municipalities, four are located in the state of Alagoas (Maragogi, Porto de Pedras, Coruripe, and Piaçabuçu), with an estimated economic impact of R$79.5 million on the state. These findings highlight the significant economic and social threat posed by A. pseudugesii and underscore the urgent need for the development of effective control measures and rigorous phytosanitary monitoring to prevent or delay the pest’s spread. Keywords: Whitefly. Climate changes. Niche dynamics models. Food security. Coconut palm.