Geografia eleitoral: uma análise das eleições presidenciais no estado de Alagoas de 2010-2022, a partir dos conceitos de formação socioespacial

Abstract

The objective of this study is to analyze the distribution of votes in the East, Agreste and Sertão mesoregions of the state of Alagoas in the last four presidential elections – 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022, based on the concept of socio-spatial formation. To this end, the field of Electoral Geography and the relationship between voting and territory will be presented first, followed by a discussion of the socio-territorial formation of the state of Alagoas, reverberating in the process of electoral choice, and finally a geospatial and statistical analysis of the valid votes will be presented, relating them to the areas of sugarcane cultivation. The central question of the work is: how does the process of socio-spatial formation affect voter behavior in the municipalities of the state of Alagoas? To answer this question, the quantitative method was used, collecting the valid votes of the presidential candidates in the respective elections on the platform of the Superior Electoral Court, as well as collecting information on sugarcane plantations per hectare and livestock production in the state of Alagoas, available respectively on the Alagoas em Dados and IBGE platforms. After the data was collected, it was spatialized using the eoprocessing and mapping software Qgis 3.22. The electoral migration calculation was carried out using the average valid votes in the first and second round for each candidate as variables, and the linear regression calculation, a statistical method that checks the correlation between two variables, will be used in this study to compare the relationship between sugarcane plantations per hectare and valid votes, using spreadsheet software (Excel).The main results were the existence of electoral patterns in the territory of Alagoas, in which the mesoregion of eastern Alagoas tends to vote for center-right candidates, and the sertão and agreste for center-left candidates. With regard to the migration of votes, it can be seen that there was no significant migration of candidates' votes between one round and the next or between elections. The linear regression showed that sugarcane had a negative influence on the votes of Workers' Party candidates, while it had a positive influence on center-right candidates. In conclusion, it was found that socio-territorial formation influences the electoral choice of voters in Alagoas.