Panorama da inserção internacional do setor agrícola do Nordeste e sua relação com as barreiras comerciais no período recente

Abstract

The Northeast region of Brazil plays a crucial role in the Brazilian agricultural sector, primarily due to its production and substantial contribution to exports. This study aims to analyze the international integration of the agricultural sector in the Northeast region of Brazil from 2010 to 2021, focusing on its relationship with trade barriers, both tariff and non-tariff. The analysis employs descriptive statistics based on secondary data from national and international platforms like ComexStat and World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS), with a focus on the Trade Analysis Information System (TRAINS) database. Subsequently, utilizing the gravity model, models were estimated using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML), and PPML with fixed effects (PPMFE). Results highlight significant growth in Northeastern agricultural exports, particularly in plant products. Different states, notably Bahia, Maranhão, and Piauí, significantly contribute to these exports. The Brazilian agricultural sector faces varying tariffs, affecting its global market entry, alongside numerous sanitary and phytosanitary barriers focused on horticultural products, plants, roots, tubers, and live plants, reflecting concerns for health and phytosanitary safety. Tariffs negatively impact Northeastern agricultural exports, with consistently negative coefficients, indicating that higher tariffs limit competitiveness. Non-tariff barriers, including sanitary, phytosanitary, and technical regulations, exhibit varied effects on exports, contingent on the economic approaches used in analyses, underscoring the need for more detailed product-specific analysis. The study underscores the necessity for strategic policies aiming to reduce tariffs and non-tariff barriers, enhance product quality, comply with sanitary and phytosanitary regulations, and invest in production standards. Furthermore, it emphasizes the importance of diversifying export destinations and exploring trade agreements to drive agricultural sector growth and contribute to the regional and national economy.