A resiliência dos Incumbents: proibição de financiamento corporativo e sucesso eleitoral dos candidatos à reeleição (2012-2016)

Abstract

What is the effect of the ban on corporate financing on the electoral success of incumbents? The aim of this paper is to estimate the effect of the incumbent's ban on corporate finance from the incumbent in the 2016 election. We will test the hypothesis that a ban on corporate finance has a significant and negative effect on the electoral success of incumbents. To this end, we will use data for city halls in 2012 and 2016 made available by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) and collected using the R EleiçõesBR1 language package. Methodologically, we will use descriptive statistics and logistic regression. The main results indicate that 1) municipalities over 200 thousand inhabitants concentrate most of the incomes of the historic operators; 2) the maximum amount spent in the 2012 election was R $ 81230735; and 3) the maximum amount spent in the 2016 election was R $ 2746581.