O impacto do Programa Bolsa Família sobre a migração em Alagoas, Maranhão e Piauí

Abstract

This work sought to investigate how the Bolsa Família Program - PBF impacted the phenomenon of migration considering three variables: migration, long-term migration and return migration. The study focused the analysis on the states of Alagoas, Maranhão and Piauí and made use of microdata from the 2010 Demographic Census, manifested to the Propensity Score Matching - PSM method for the algorithms of the nearest neighbor, five nearest neighbors, Inverse-probabilityweighted regression fit – IPWRA and Ordinary Least Squares – OLS. To verify the robustness of the observed results, the research carried out the Rosenbaum approach in the PSM and the Oster approach in the MQO. Among the results obtained, the study showed that the PBF impacts migration, in addition to positively stimulating long-term migration and return migration. In addition, an additional analysis was also carried out investigating what was the impact of the PBF on the migration variables in rural and urban areas educationally. This additional analysis showed that in Alagoas, Maranhão and Piauí the impact of PBF on migration is greater in urban areas compared to the impact seen in rural areas. In turn, the longterm migration variable in most algorithms the impact of PBF was higher in rural areas for the three states. And finally, in the return migration variable, the observed results found that the impact of the program was higher in urban areas in Alagoas and Piauí, whereas in the case of Maranhão, the results indicated that the impact was higher in rural areas for all algorithms with exception of the MQO. Considering only the tests carried out on the three migration variables (not taking into account isolated rural and urban areas), the sensitivity analyzes indicated robustness for the results of the migrant variable, however in the long-term migrant variable the Rosenbaum approach felt. in the results, on the other hand, Oster's approach showed robustness. As for the return migrant variable, Rosenbaum's approach showed robustness for the result seen in Alagoas and Maranhão and sensitivity for the seen in Piauí, while Oster's approach showed sensitivity in the results of Alagoas and Maranhão and robustness in the result of Piauí. Thus, the research confirms the hypothesis that the PBF causes an impact on migration in general.