Impactos do Programa Bolsa Família na taxa de matrícula e na defasagem escolar de crianças de 6 a 17 anos: uma análise para os estados e mesorregiões do Nordeste

Abstract

The objective of this study is to investigate the impacts of the Bolsa Família Program on the educational indicators, enrollment fee and school discrepancy, of children from 6 to 17 years of age in the Northeast region, as well as their respective mesoregions according to of the 2010 Census. For estimation of results, the Propensity Score Matching method was used applying complementary estimates and sensitivity analysis. There was a break up in two age groups being from 7 to 14 years and 15 to 17 years for Enrollment Fee and and from 8 to 14 years and 15 to 17 years for School Discrepancy considering the possibility of difference of impacts according to the group considered. The results indicated that beneficiaries are more probability to execute enrolment as well as having no lag (although with few statistically significant results) both in the analysis for state and for mesoregions. It was also possible to observe that the program demonstrates greatest impact on the older age group for boys and for rural homes. The complementary estimates and sensitivity analysis suggest robust results especially in relation to the enrollment fee. Threrefore, there is confirmation of the hypothesis that the PBF has impacts on the educational indicators of its beneficiaries.