Mapeamento de inundações de áreas urbanas no entorno do CELMM

Abstract

Mean sea level rise is an aspect that has drawn the attention of the scientific community and coastal cities around the world. The mean sea level of most recent decades is ten times greater when it is compared to the mean sea level of the most recent millennia. It brings serious challenges to the population and assets in flood-prone coastal zones over the next century. An increase in the frequency of minor looding is already reported in some regions around the world due to the space between high tidal datums and land soil elevation. These nuisance flooding, although not destructive, cause public inconvenience, business interruption, substantial economic losses due to the infrastructure degradation impacts, in addition to causing many injuries due to the socio-economic impacts and public ealth, through of water-borne diseases. In this study were evaluated the effects of he combination between future projections of mean sea level rise of 3, 6 and 15 cm – associated with projection of 10, 20 and 50 years as suggested by global sea level rise – with extreme flow values associated with return time of 10, 50 and 100 years. The results on the worse simulation scenario (increasing of the sea level of 15 cm and flow with return time of 100 years) show depths that range from 90 to 15 cm and can achieve until 300 meters from the margins of the Mundaú lagoon. This study also showed that minor floods in these sites may become more frequent in 50 years, if global mean sea level rise of 15 cm associated with projections from 50 years forecasts are reached.