Mudança de paradigma no transporte coletivo: um exame das causas da redução no uso de ônibus em Maceió no período de 2016 a 2022

Abstract

In recent years, a gradual decline in the number of bus users has been observed, accompanied by a perceived worsening of the city’s transportation services. This dynamic has profound consequences not only for the population relying on this mode of public transportation but also for others who use the roads daily. The general objective of this study is to investigate the variables associated with the decline in bus transportation demand in the city of Maceió, the capital of Alagoas. Additionally, the specific objectives of this research are to list, through the literature, the variables that influence bus transportation demand behavior and to determine their level of significance. To this end, techniques such as graphical analysis, descriptive statistics, price elasticity and income elasticity calculations of demand, as well as econometric models, were employed over two periods: one prior to and one following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, which affected demand behavior in distinct ways. Through this analysis, it was possible to identify factors such as the total vehicle fleet, the average gasoline price, and the minimum wage as contributors to the observed demand shift. Consequently, a strong relationship was observed between the reduction in bus demand and the increase in the vehicle fleet in the city.