Tendências de ondas de calor e secas no nordeste do Brasil e seus impactos na produção de cana-de-açúcar, milho e soja

Abstract

Climate change has a direct impact on daily life worldwide, affecting economic and social aspects. Heat waves and drought events significantly affect agricultural production in several regions of the world. In Northeastern Brazil, a region historically marked by extreme climate variability, these events have a particularly severe impact, impacting the cultivation of sugarcane, corn, and soybeans, among several other crops of food and economic importance. The main objective of this research was to evaluate the downward trend in production by associating these variations with local climate conditions, especially with the lack of rainfall. The methodology used was based on the analysis of SPI values regarding the number and frequency of drought events. The time series of agricultural production in these states were analyzed. Quadratic regression models were applied to identify production trends over time and correlate them with regional rainfall data. The coefficient of determination (R²) was used to quantify the variation explained by the models, considering both climate factors and the agricultural practices adopted. The results indicate periods of extreme drought for all regions studied. As the time scale increased, the number of drought events identified by the SPI decreased. Thus, there was a tendency for production to decline in the states analyzed. These results show that agricultural production in the Brazilian Northeast is highly vulnerable to climate variations, particularly to water availability. Irrigation practices appear to be an essential element for maintaining productivity, reducing crop losses and ensuring the sustainability of agricultural activities in the region, mitigating the impacts of droughts and ensuring the viability of agricultural production in the long term. It is concluded that, in the Northeast region of Brazil, droughts and heat waves significantly harm the agricultural sector, causing considerable losses. Given these challenges, it is essential to adopt water management practices and use advanced irrigation technologies to ensure the resilience and sustainability of agricultural production.