Análise de eventos extremos e possíveis influências em desastres naturais no estado de Alagoas

Abstract

Alagoas is the second smallest state in Brazil and is bordered by the Atlantic Ocean to the east, Sergipe to the south, Pernambuco to the north and west and Bahia to the southwest. Most of the population of Alagoas is located in the vicinity of Maceió, the largest city in the state and with the highest population concentration, with more than 30% of the population in the region. In view of this, this work aimed to carry out a study of the history of precipitation and temperature in the state of Alagoas, in the period 1948-2021, in order to investigate meteorological indicators through statistics in the prevention of natural disasters. The data of climatological normals and history of precipitation were collected by INMET (National Institute of Meteorology) and after collecting the data, they were used to create graphs of precipitation, temperature, among other meteorological variables in some municipalities in the state of Alagoas. The data for ODP (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and ENOS (El Niño and La Niña), were obtained from the international agencies NCEP/NCAR and were used to generate images in order to analyze precipitation and temperatures in the same region. In this study, a standard deviation was used and with this it was possible to identify which years such as 2004, 2007 and 2017 were considered rainy and that in the years 2012, 2015, 2016 and 2020 were considered dry in Maceió/AL, thus causing natural disasters in different extremes. The municipality of Maceió/AL presented 13 records of rainfall above 100mm/day, which in turn have great potential to cause landslides and flooding. This gives even more importance to statistical analysis of meteorological data for the prevention of natural disasters.