Efeitos da pandemia do Covid-19 na execução orçamentária dos gastos nos estados e no Distrito Federal

Abstract

The general objective of this study is to analyze the effects of the Covid-19 Pandemic on the Budget Execution of Public Expenditures in the States and the Federal District. A longitudinal study from 2018 to 2023, descriptive and with a mixed approach. The data were collected on the SICONFI platform and included the 26 states and the Federal District to analyze the prepandemic (2018 and 2019), pandemic (2020 and 2021) and post-pandemic (2022 and 2023) periods. To verify the effects of the pandemic during these three scenarios, the execution indicators of expenditures categorized economically (current and capital) and segregated by nature groups were used. For the statistical analysis of these variables, the Shapiro-Wilk test was initially used, which showed a nonparametric distribution of the data, which were subjected to the Friedman test to verify the existence of significant variations in the three periods analyzed, while the multiple comparisons were verified by the Wilcoxon test, which allowed the identification of differences, adopting, for this purpose, a significance level of 5% (p < 0.05). The results revealed significant differences for current and capital expenditures in the three periods analyzed and for the expense nature groups, except for debt amortization. The multiple comparisons indicated significant differences, with a high effect size, for the increase in current and capital expenditures between the pre-pandemic and post-pandemic periods and, as for the nature groups, except for debt amortization, the variations for the increases and decreases, between the three periods analyzed and compared, were significant with an effect size ranging from medium to high. Considering the amount of expenditure executed by subnational entities, the revelations brought in this study contribute to and reinforce the need to understand the dynamics of the application of resources collected by the government, as well as the respective directions given to the execution of public policies before, during and after periods of unpredictable events.