Avaliação de impacto de políticas de segurança: o caso do programa de serviço voluntário remunerado - Força Tarefa no estado de Alagoas

Abstract

The government of the State of Alagoas, in 2014, enacted the law that created the Remunerated Voluntary Service Program, which aimed primarily at reducing the number of homicides through the promotion of a culture of peace in the state and integration with other measures that bring greater security to the population. That said, the objective of this work is to evaluate the impact of the program popularly known as Task Force, on homicide indicators. The strategy for conducting the analysis will follow the synthetic control methodology, in pursuit of obtaining a counterfactual for this indicator, estimating in turn, the impact of the program. Data were extracted from microdata produced by the Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua (Pnadc), by the Atlas da Violência from Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (Ipea), and through the databases of Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade (SIM - DATASUS), between the period of 2010 to 2021, aiming to analyze the trajectory of the variables of interest. The results indicate that the trajectory of the number of homicides would follow a trend of significant growth; however, in a long-term analysis, there is a decrease of over 50.02% in homicides between 2014 and 2021. This is in contrast to the synthetic control projection, which showed a smaller reduction of about 17.06%. It is estimated that 4,086 lives have been saved. However, these results are likely attributable to a combination of legal milestones and institutional actions aimed at reducing this indicator, which ran concurrently with the Task Force's actions but were not analyzed in this study.