Efeitos das medidas não tarifárias sobre a participação do Brasil nas cadeias globais de valor 2012-2020

Abstract

Brazil's participation in Global Value Chains (GVCs) is relatively lower compared to other global and Latin American economies. Although Brazil has focused on both trade defense measures and export support measures, the effects of non-tariff measures (NTMs) on its participation in GVCs have not been widely studied. This study aims to fill this gap by analyzing the effects of NTMs on Brazil's participation in GVCs between 2012 and 2020. Using the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) econometric methodology, 18 sectors in 75 countries were analyzed. The results indicate that Brazil has a modest participation in GVCs, with greater forward participation (14%-16%) compared to backward participation (10%-12%). An increase in NTMs applied by both Brazil and its trade partners was observed during the study period, as well as an increase in the Bilateral Regulatory Distance (BIRD) index, indicating greater regulatory divergence between Brazil and its partners. The analysis revealed that regulatory distance had a positive effect on Brazil's forward participation and a negative effect on its backward participation in GVCs. These results suggest that harmonizing NTMs with international regulatory standards could improve Brazil's integration into GVCs, especially by securing existing markets and exploring new ones (through increased forward participation) and incorporating more advanced technologies into the production process (through increased backward participation). The latter is an important element for Brazil's transition from low value-added chains to those of greater sophistication.