Análise comparativa do modelo de circulação geral da atmosfera do CPTEC, com os modelos do CMIP5/PMIP3 para o período do holoceno-médio

Abstract

These work establishes which of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) e Paleoclimate Modelling intercomparison Project, (PMIP3) models resembles the simulations of the CPTEC, from the comparison of simulations of 30 years, the Middle Holocene period (6000 years ago - a period marked by changes in orbital parameters (Milankovich cycle) and lower concentrations of CO2). From 12 models CMIP5 / PMIP3, it has generated an average ENSEMBLE to represent the reference field. Subsequently, we used the Taylor diagram in order to determine which, among the 12 models, statistically representing the value of the ensemble and models that represent the distances greater or larger dispersions in analyzing diagram for thereafter comparing these models with the model of CPTEC, in order to verify that the latter resembles ENSEMBLE. Among the models that met the requirements chosen by Taylor diagram are the HadGEM2-ES model was the one closest to the ENSEMBLE, FGOALS-S2 representing the values of greater amplitude, and MRI-CGCM3 GISS-E2-R representing larger amplitudes (with lower statistical values) for precipitation and temperature respectively. The models established by the diagram, which best represented the CPTEC was HadGEM2-ES in the two variables and is consistent with the average value found in both analyzes in precipitation and temperature diagrams. Showing that the CPTEC and represented the elapsed time simulations (HM) and which can be used to perform simulations for the future climate.