Os efeitos da profundidade dos acordos preferenciais de comércio na participação em cadeias globais de valor

Abstract

The intensification of international trade that occurred from the 1980s onwards brought about the fragmentation of production, giving rise to true 'borderless factories' known as Global Value Chains. Simultaneously, economic agreements have proliferated, with Preferential Trade Agreements standing out among them. These agreements typically aim to liberalize trade and regulate various other topics, including investments, competition policy, intellectual property rights, and procurement. Over time, they have deepened, encompassing a wider range of regulatory provisions within the same framework. This study sought to empirically measure the impact of Preferential Trade Agreements on Global Value Chain trade flows. Specifically, it aimed to determine whether the depth of an agreement affects this specific type of trade. Furthermore, it analyzed whether differences exist based on the type of bilateral relationship, taking into account the development level of the countries involved, as well as the type of participation in Global Value Chains and the specific provisions within each agreement. The research sample included 75 countries, comprising 40 developed and 35 developing countries, spanning the period from 1995 to 2019 at three-year intervals. The study employed the gravity model of international trade using the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator, which is suitable for capturing the inherent heterogeneity of international trade. The findings indicate that, overall, Preferential Trade Agreements have a positive impact on Global Value Chains flows. Moreover, the deeper the agreement, the greater its effect on this type of trade. Additionally, a more significant impact is observed in terms of backward participation, particularly among developing countries. Furthermore, when examining individual provisions, the following demonstrate the most significant positive effects, respectively: investments, services, technical barriers, intellectual property rights, competition policy, and procurement. Consequently, in addition to presenting new results based on more recent, comprehensive, and methodologically innovative data sources, this research holds important implications for foreign trade policymakers.