De volta para o futuro: voto retrospectivo e a análise do impacto da competição no desempenho eleitoral

Abstract

The present work intends to analyze the effect of competition on the electoral performance of the incumbent, taking into account the elections in which Dilma Rousseff ran for president. Our hypothesis is that the level of competition has a negative and significant effect on the electoral performance of the incumbent (Dilma Rousseff). The methodology adopted in the research was based on 1) Descriptive Analysis; 2) Cluster Analysis: Classification of databases; 3) Regression Analysis. We arrived at results that advocate in favor of the hypothesis, measuring the electoral competitions of the presidential dispute in the municipalities in the 2006, 2010 and 2014 elections. The percentage of votes obtained by the winning candidates in the last two elections was also analyzed. The main source of data was the TSE. To test our null hypothesis, we used cluster analysis and linear regression model of OLS. The conclusion we had from the results obtained is that, in fact, the high degree of competition has a negative impact on the candidate's electoral performance, representing significant impacts on his electoral success