Um exercício para verificar se a pandemia da Covid-19 modificou a trajetória mensal dos recebimentos de ICMS no município de Coruripe-AL

Abstract

The work is to identify whether the Covid-19 pandemic has compromised the future behavior (trajectory) of ICMS transfers received by the municipality of Coruripe, located on the south coast of the state of Alagoas. The investigation starts from the premise that circumstantial phenomena of great magnitude and economic reach, such as the measures adopted to face the Covid-19 pandemic by local and regional governments, ends up drawing interventionist situations in the daily lives of labor and production activities, changing the socioeconomic situation, especially in the short term, with the potential and significant capacity to cause deviations in the sequencing of ICMS transfers by the states to the municipalities that comprise it, causing a detachment of forecasts from the actual amounts transferred. The methodology chosen was the method developed by Box-Jenkins in 1947, as portrayed in Pindyck & Rubinfeld (2004) and Gujarati (2006).