Cadeias Globais de Valor e mudança estrutural: uma análise de painel com 58 países no período de 2006 a 2015

Abstract

This research aimed to verify the effects produced by Global Value Chains (GVC) on production structures of countries integrating them and whether these effects are the same for developed and developing economies. The contribution of this work was to estimate a causal relationship between CGV participation and structural changes, whose approach is relatively scarce in literature, making use of static and dynamic panel data, the latter consisting of methods that have not been applied before. With this purpose, a bibliographic review pertinent to the thematic was made, to, so, create an econometric model that should measure the given relationship. A sample of 58 developed and developing countries was used, between 2006 and 2015, whose impacts of GVC on productive structures were estimated through static and dynamic panel data. Two proxies were used to measure structural change: the q Index and the Economic Complexity Index. For the former, we have found, in general, a positive relationship between the participation in GVC and the growth of the sophistication of exports. For the latter, however, we obtained negatively related results for structural change and GVC participation, principally when we only analyzed developing countries, suggesting a deindustrialization process post-GVC participation.