Modelagem computacional da interdependência entre o fenômeno enos e a precipitação pluviométrica na Região Leste do Estado de Alagoas

Abstract

Some stochastic phenomena can some way cause meaningful damages to the nature and human being as well. Among these phenomena there is the variable meteorological rainfall, which is the most important one for the agricultural and environmental activities developed in the tropical regions. Although its record has been taking as one of the simplest ones it s difficult, in some places, its measurement due to the lack of a well distributed pluviometer station net in most of the regions or due to mistakes occurred during the measured caused by badly calibrated instruments. The computational model has been more and more accepted and applied as a technique that allows to the analysts from different segments to verify or offer solutions with the efficiency required to the problems with whom they deal with daily in several areas of the human activities. The rainfall, through its relevance in the socio-economical context, mainly in regions where people live predominantly with an agricultural economy, the lack of rain causes a large loss in the productive sector and also causes the rural exodus. In this context, the variable rainfall is studied in this research work, using computational model techniques, monitored throughout 100 years, from 1911 to 2010, as a way to better understand its behavior, making possible that way, to generate appropriated information for the decision making