Análise comparativa do desempenho financeiro de usinas de geração distribuída GD I e GD II

Abstract

The Distributed Generation (DG) sector of solar photovoltaic energy in Brazil underwent a significant regulatory transformation with the implementation of Law No. 14,300/2022. This change imposes new economic parameters on entrepreneurs and consumers. In this context, this study aimed to analyze and compare the economic and financial performance of Distributed Generation (DG) projects for solar photovoltaic energy, comparing the previous regulatory regime, which began with Normative Resolution No. 482/2012, with the new regime, created based on the regulations of Law No. 14,300/2022, known as the Legal Framework for Distributed Generation. The research is justified by the need to quantify the impact of the regulatory change—which now charges a portion of the grid usage costs (TUSD Fio B) on the injected energy—on the viability of new projects. The methodology adopted is comparative and quantitative in nature, involving the simulation of financial scenarios for different business models, such as residential and investment plants for shared generation, using technical data, generation projections, and energy tariffs from the Alagoas utility company (Equatorial Alagoas). The process consisted of projecting cash flows and calculating feasibility indicators, such as Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Profitability Index (PI), and Payback, using a Minimum Attractiveness Rate (MAR) of 15%. Therefore, it can be inferred that, although the new regulations impact profitability indicators, On-Grid Photovoltaic Systems remain viable. The results demonstrate that the regulatory change increased the return time (Payback) by 19.93% for the first situation analyzed (residential model) and by 45.50% for the second situation (shared generation plants), highlighting the need to reevaluate the business models in the new Legal Framework.