Análise da variabilidade da radiação solar em Alagoas durante eventos extremos de precipitação utilizando o modelo WRF-Solar

Abstract

Solar energy plays a fundamental role in the planning of photovoltaic systems and is a promising solution to meet global sustainability goals. In Alagoas, the high solar potential contrasts with significant climatic challenges, such as intense rainfall and severe droughts, highlighting the need for detailed studies to guide decisions on renewable energy generation. This study evaluated the variability of solar radiation in Alagoas during years with high precipitation indexes, using the WRF-Solar model. The study area covers the state of Alagoas, and ERA-5 reanalysis data were used for the simulation. Two model configurations were analyzed during the simulations: with stochastic perturbation (WS-C1) and Deng’s parameterization (WS-C2), with a 5 km resolution, a 101x101 grid, and a duration of 24 hours. For validation, radiation data from the INMET database and precipitation data from MERGE were used. The results indicated that the WS-C2 configuration, with the hybrid cloud scheme (representation of shallow and deep clouds) of Deng activated, showed greater accuracy in representing the spatial and temporal variability of global horizontal irradiance, especially in the coastal region. In 2022, an average reduction of 15% in solar irradiance was observed compared to 2023. The correlation obtained was r = 0.74 (Coast), r = 0.80 (Palmeira dos Índios), and r = 0.86 (Pão de Açúcar). The Sertão region was identified as the area with the highest solar potential, recording an annual average of 6.5 kWh/m².d. The results obtained not only assist in the sizing and location of photovoltaic systems in Alagoas, but also provide valuable insights for the expansion of renewable energy generation, promoting energy sustainability in a region sensitive to climatic variations.