Projeções climáticas dos cenários RCP 8.5 e 4.5 nas capitais dos estados do Nordeste do Brasil, utilizando modelos climáticos regionais

Abstract

Atmospheric events directly and indirectly influence terrestrial life. Over the centuries, various techniques and concepts have been developed to understand and attempt to predict weather phenomena in order to minimize side effects that may be caused by extreme events. One of the methods currently employed to predict weather phenomena is the use of climate models. The purpose of this study is primarily to test the RegCM and WRF models in the simulation and use of climate scenarios, thus helping to make socioeconomic decisions. The Northeast region of Brazil is situated between the parallels of 07 ° 12 '35 "south latitude and 48 ° 20' 07" south latitude and between the meridians of 34 ° 47 '30 "and 48 ° 45' 24", west of the Greenwich meridian. It encompasses the states of Alagoas, Bahia, Ceará, Maranhão, Paraiba, Pernambuco, Piaui, Rio Grande do Norte and Sergipe. In the results it is possible to see in the precipitation variable that the WRF model presented a response to the days with and without the occurrence of rain, although not at the same intensity as observed, it is also seen that in both models an increase in the average annual temperature, this increase varies from 0.3 to 0.8 depending on location, it was also found that for the wind variable the simulated data were better related to the observed gust data than to the wind speed data. Based on what was presented it is possible to say that the models obtained a good response to the simulations in relation to the observed, either in the rounds without or with the use of climatic scenarios, where in some variables it is possible to see a better performance in the representation of the intensity. of the variable, others in the seasonal variation of the variable and some in both characteristics.