Efeito de variáveis macroeconômicas sobre as exportações de produtos farmoquímicos e farmacêuticos no Brasil: uma análise considerando os principais parceiros comerciais

Abstract

The objective of this study was to measure and analyze the impact of macroeconomic variables on exports of pharmochemicals and pharmaceutical products from Brazil, considering data from the period 1997-2021, disaggregating the analysis for the main trading partners of this country. As the main estimation method, this work will use the panel data fixed effects model chosen by the Hausman test. In addition, it is intended to contribute to this literature by estimating elasticities, seeking to understand the role that prices, aggregate income and the real exchange rate have on exports of pharmochemicals and pharmaceuticals, considering Brazil's main trading partners. This information may allow a better understanding of the trajectory of exports in this segment, as well as the formulation of public policies. In this sense, the results indicated that Mexico and Argentina were the countries that were present in all subperiods of the analysis of the main destinations for exports of pharmochemicals and pharmaceutical products from Brazil in the period 1997 to 2021. In addition, the econometric analysis suggests that the variable GDP has a statistically significant effect on exports of pharmaceutical products and on exports of medicines, unlike the variable price of total exports, it did not prove to be statistically significant. Finally, the external dependency on inputs from the health industrial area in Brazil demonstrates the need for government measures aimed at encouraging the sector, since the literature points to low incentives on the part of it.