Brasil Mais Seguro: avaliação de impacto do programa nos estados de Alagoas, Sergipe, Paraíba e Rio Grande do Norte (2008-2018)

Abstract

Impact assessment is the effect directly attributed to an action or the consequence of a particular effort to achieve a desired end. In the field of public security, most social projects and programs end up not having their impacts evaluated. However, there is a consensus in the specialized literature that measuring impact is still the safest way to assess costs and develop more efficient interventions in terms of the constitution of fairer and more sustainable societies. It will seek to compare the results produced by the Safer Brazil Program (BMS) in the set of four states where it was developed, namely: Alagoas, Sergipe, Paraíba and Rio Grande do Norte. Unlike previous programs proposed by the Federal Government, the BMS distinguished itself by producing a policy aimed at promoting the investigative power of state police officers and by enhancing the ostensible and saturation policing actions in territories that concentrated, at the time, the highest rates of violence homicide in the country. To apprehend the positive and negative changes in this process, as well as the so-called direct and indirect changes promoted by the execution of the program in the states, it is worth asking: did the BMS produce the expected results? The program's impact evaluation will seek to answer this question and track its results and inputs from three axes: (i) the relationship between investments directed at state investigative polices and their impact on the resolution rates of homicide investigations, as well as as its result in the fight against impunity in each state, (ii) the promotion of ostensible policing to the detriment of community policing as a form of social control of crime in vulnerable territories and, (iii) the encouragement of the development of actions coordinated and integrated public security systems as a way of optimizing governance and efficiency mechanisms with public security and the criminal justice system of the states.