Estudo de teleconexões climáticas para a previsão hidrológica de longo prazo da bacia do rio Piancó no semiárido paraibano

Abstract

It is estimated recently more intensively, the existence of a strong link between large-scale circulation and climatic variables having a considerable effect on rainfall patterns around the world through teleconnection. Increasingly, it has been significant progress in the development of long-term hydrological forecast systems (from one week to a few months in advance) with the use of climate indices. Thus, it was held in the Piancó River Basin, a study between precipitation events and climate indices, highlighting its teleconnection through correlation tools and signal preprocessing. In the second part, with the main selected teleconnection it was possible to develop long-term rainfall forecasting models using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), applied different ANN arrangements for evaluating the forecast quality in this basin. It is observed that the Pacific Ocean carries great influence on rainfall in the region, demonstrated through the correlations of its climate indices, indicating strong teleconnection. The various ANN arrays, provide good skill for a reasonable prediction with up to 11 months in advance, in some cases, the use of indices, so far, less considered in studies in the region. It also notes that the distribution of the data set for the ANN training, has a strong influence on the quality of prediction.