O efeito das cadeias globais de valor sobre o crescimento econômico: dados em painel de 1996 a 2015

Abstract

A new way of producing and internationally selling starts since the end of the 20th century with the intensification of globalization, characterized by Global Value Chains (CGVs), which in turn intensified international competition between countries, making gradually more complex relations. The aim of this dissertation is to evaluate the impact of participation in GVCs on economic growth, considering a sample of 63 countries, including developed and developing economies for the period from 1996 to 2015. To meet the general aim, we use an econometric methodology of panel data in its static forms, pooled OLS, fixed and random effects and by the dynamic form with Difference GMM and System GMM evaluation. The main contribution of the work to the literature is to estimate a data model in a static and dynamic panel for this period, using two global input-product matrices - the Trade in Value Added (2016 and 2018), from WTO/OECD. First, in relation to a descriptive analysis of the indicators, we found that on average, economies are increasingly integrating into GVCs, with growth rates of the gvcpart index practically throughout the period. Secondly, the econometric results show that participation in CGVs is only relevant for the economic growth when the countries participate in the generation of value added. Therefore, it is not enough just to participate in CGVs, it is increasingly important to participate as an exporter of intermediaries and not only as a mere assembler from the import of foreign content. Ultimately, we the secondary hypothesis of the work in relation to the importance of forward positioning in GVCs associated with the technological content of the sectors: as countries specialized in upstream activities in high technology, they tend to obtain more benefits in terms of economic growth than countries located upstream in primary and low-tech sectors.