Influência das variáveis climáticas e da degradação ambiental na dinâmica dos casos notificados de dengue em Alagoas

Abstract

The study aimed to assess the influence of climatic variables and environmental degradation on the dynamics of notified dengue cases in Alagoas. The reported dengue data were obtained from the DATASUS system and comprises the period between 2000 and 2015. The time series was subjected to descriptive, exploratory, multivariate statistics (Cluster Analysis - CA and Principal Component Analysis - PCA) and the Mann- Kendall (MK) and Pettitt. In the design of the dengue case maps, the Minimum Curvature method (Spline) via ArcGis version 10.5 was used. The results of the AA technique applied to the municipalities of the State resulted in two homogeneous groups (G1 and G2) of dengue cases. The G1 group is composed only by the municipality of Maceió and the G2 group by the other 101 municipalities in Alagoas. In descriptive statistics, 10 municipalities stood out in the time series, with the highest case records, the exception being Teotônio Vilela and Delmiro Gouveia. The exploratory statistics via boxplot showed that all municipalities are positive asymmetrical cases for dengue for some months, with the exception of Delmiro Gouveia, which was close to the median. In the MK test it was pointed out that the majority of the municipalities were categorized as SGT (Significant Growing Trend) and NSGT (Non-Significant Growing Trend), the exceptions were the NT (No Trend), Piranhas - Sertão, followed by Anadia, Ibateguara, Novo Lino, Jundiá, São Miguel dos Milagres and Roteiro - Leste Alagoano. The Pettitt test identified the years with biannual cycles (2006/2007 and 2009/2010) and the months of January, February, April and December with sudden changes in the time series of reported cases. The EVI showed a marked decrease in vegetation and the NDVI pointed to changes in land use and occupation in the State, mainly the decrease in abundant vegetation, and an increase in sparse vegetation and sterile / built land. In the correlation matrix, he pointed out the correlations between the NCD and DD; population; and HDI in 2000, as opposed to 2010, the correlation between GINI and NCD. PC1 pointed out that Population, DD, HDI and NCD had greater contributions to the increase in reported cases of dengue, while in PC2, the contribution was from the variables AUT and GINI.