Simulação hidrometeorológica em bacia semiárida/tropical através de um modelo atmosférico-hidrológico acoplado

Abstract

The mathematical atmospheric modeling by regional climate models (RCM) usually have to manage the necessity of representation for a wide range of process versus the precision of water and energy fluxes simulations. In a basin scale, usually smaller than regional simulation domains, the weather forecasts are damaged by neglect of hydrologic process that weights the atmospheric dynamic, especially the precipitation process. In this study, the replacement of a semi empirical land-surface model for a calibrated hydrological was investigated. This approach affected the soil moisture and evapotranspiration directly and improved some model estimations at basin scale. Two case studies were proposed to check the hydrologic process influence on cold fronts and convective events, comparing the model outputs with rainfall gauging stations and satellite images. The results showed that, on this specific scale, previous water balance calibration leads to a better representation of rainfall estimates in space and time. The cold front event showed a better spatial accordance in the two-way coupled model than the original RCM, but the event magnitude was not different. On the convective event, the two-way coupling approach showed improvements on event timing and magnitude, according also with the theoretical reference about rainfall dynamics on the region.