A hipótese da contração fiscal expansionista, controvérsias teóricas e evidências empíricas: o caso brasileiro pós-crise 2008

Abstract

With the advent of the 2008 US crisis, fiscal policy is again relevant as a countercyclical policy as it did in the 1930s in response to the Great Depression. Several estimates have shown the relevance of fiscal multipliers at times like these and served as a basis for the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan Act and for other expansionary policies in the major world economies. But in a short time fiscal stimulus policies were again criticized on the basis of the Expansionary Fiscal Contraction Hypothesis (HCFE). Several fiscal consolidation plans have been implemented since then around the world and more recently in Brazil. The Constitutional Amendment 95 was approved by the Temer government and provides for the reduction of public spending over twenty years to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio and to restore investor confidence. However, international and national evidence also points to the relevance of public spending, especially those based on investments, to take the economy out of its stagnation and thereby also to recover the government's ability to collect and thus achieve in an alternative way the reduction of public debt. The present dissertation seeks to answer if the HCFE is valid for the Brazilian economy in the post-crisis 2008. The main empirical evidence available in the post 2008 at the international and local levels was gathered. After ten years of the international crisis, most of the economies that have promoted the adjustment of public accounts in the midst of the recession have not yet recovered their economic activity or solved the debt problem that has increased. Among the main considerations of this paper is an indication to policymakers to incorporate the recent advances in the literature in order to solve the current economic problems and to wait for the appropriate moment to promote the adjustment of the public accounts.