Desenvolvimento de modelo de simulação para sistemas dinâmicos de produção de leite

Abstract

Each milk-producing undertaking consists of a complex system of production, where high degree of uncertainty in each one of its components. Climate-order components, plant, animal, social and economic concern in various interactions, configuring a dynamic network of comings and goings between the components of the system. This complexity inherent to the activity, along with profit margins of increasingly reduced, configure a scenario for managing milk production systems where decision-making has a narrow threshold between the success or failure of the activity. The computer simulation is a method employed to study the performance of a system through the formulation of a mathematical model, which should play, as thorough as possible, the behavior of the real system. Manipulating the model and analyzing the results, we can conclude how various factors affect system performance (EHRLICH, 1985). The model presented in this study was developed in microcomputer, in the form of a software in Basic language, with the use of Microsoft Visual Basic 2010. To assess the ability of the model to simulate production scenarios consistent with reality, in order to attest its sensitivity, production conditions were evaluated in hypothetical systems of milk production to pasture, with similar productive structure, in herds stabilized through the simulated data in 10 years of simulation (3,650 days). The model developed was shown to be able to reproduce the dynamics of production of a milk production system and serve as a basis for study, in short time, use combinations of various techniques and technologies in different environment conditions.