Acoplamento do modelo hidrológico MGB ao modelo atmosférico WRF visando estimar vazão na bacia do rio Paraíba do Meio AL/PE

Abstract

Because of computational advances its evolution in relation to speed and memory capacity in recent years, along with adding the weather, the coupling between atmospheric and hydrological models has been the object of study in several studies in recent decades. The management of large river basins is determined by several variables, with the main system and the volume of river flows. Given volume water in a basin can be affected in different ways and many different factors, as the main factors having the variability in time and space of rainfall that produces immediate changes in the flow of a given system. As the results of large precipitation events directly affect the flow regimes, this work has as main objective the coupling of the hydrological model MGB - HPI with the WRF atmospheric model in an attempt to estimate flow in the basin of the Middle Rio Paraíba,. The rainfall data provided were simulated by WRF model and the observed rainfall and flow observed awarded by the National Water Agency - ANA, for 3 (three) station pluviometric and 4 (four) fluviometric respectively. The flow simulation was carried out hydrological rainfall-runoff model MGBIPH. Analyses were made in two steps: Kriging interpolation in KGM-normal rainfall and observed, and comparison between simulated hydrographs (rain predicted and observed) and observed (gauging stations). In the spatial correlation values were found in the order of 0.54 to 0.92 for normal rainfall and the observed one. The flow simulations with data generated by the WRF, were correlated with Pearson coefficients ranging between 0.46 and 0.56, representative values for this type of meteorological and hydrological study. Pierson coefficients obtained from simulations of flows of the observed data showed best correlations with values between 0.4 and 0.71. The coupling of hydrologic models (rainfall-runoff) and atmospheric models can be considered a useful technique to aid in prognosis prediction of extreme events. There is a perceived need for calibration of the atmospheric model, to become a real and effective tool in developing warning systems for flood basin of the Paraiba do Meio, among others, which will be analyzed later