Espacialização da temperatura mensal e anual do ar no estado de Alagoas baseado em modelo determinístico global

Abstract

The space-temporal estimative of air temperature provide information on several key areas, such as weather element influences in several metabolic and physiological processes in living organisms. This also includes their direct effects on the climate, that for her time, it intervenes in the agriculture as for the agroclimatic zoning, definition of sowing times, projects and handling of the irrigation, determination of potential productivity, zoning of climatic risk, credit and safe agricultural. Because of the small number of meteorological stations and of the scarce readiness of data, the need of the application appears every time larger of Geoestatistic in mathematical models and regression equations that allow to esteem the temperature. Therefore, this work interferes in this context, approaching the estimate of the air temperature as for his space and temporary distribution, where important sazonality patterns are revealed. The averages of the air temperature were calculated for the series in every month and station, in order to expose the distinction among the monthly and annual sazonalities. This itinerary is in agreement with the climatology of NEB and of the Alagoas State. The series were obtained in the database of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), Federal University of Alagoas (UFAL) and Net of Meteorology of the Command of the Aeronautics (REDEMET), understood in 27 conventional meteorological stations, most located in Alagoas and some in neighboring states. These series are understood in an interval of data between 11 and 30 years. In the adjustment of the regression models the series of air temperaturer average, maxim and monthly and annual low were used. Soon afterwards, it was made the espacialização with aid of softwares, in order to if they generate the temperature maps. The use of mathematical models and regression equations allowed to esteem the temperature satisfactorily in the Alagoas State. The results pointed Geostatistic as an effective tool in the temporary and space analysis in the measure of that estimate. The smallest temperatures (averages, maxims and low) were observed in the month of July in every study area and the maxim happened in the month of January. The inclusion of the altitude in the models contributed to better results in the areas more discharges of the Alagoas State. The estimate determination of the air temperature supplied subsidies that facilitated in the climatic and agroclimatic zoning of the State.