Modelo de análise e predição para identificação dos fatores que influenciam o desempenho escolar na rede de ensino básico: estudo de caso em escolas municipais de Alagoas

Abstract

The transformations that have occurred in the management and organization of educational systems have been demanding decisions to improve the teaching and learning process in public educational institutions in Brazil. In this sense, the Ministry of Education created the Basic Education Development Index (IDEB), to evaluate and monitor the educational process of Brazilian schools. In this context, in particular, Educational Data Mining has provided techniques and, thus, has been helping educators and managers to support decision making, enabling the extraction of relevant information from databases. Situated in the aforementioned area, this work aims to explore attribute selection techniques and predictive algorithms, aiming to identify which factors impact on the IDEB of Alagoas municipal schools. Thus, it aims to assist in the decision-making process of educational managers, for further studies and reflections in the area. of education. Therefore, data from the Saeb test of the public schools of Maceió and Teotônio Vilela were used, conducting an experimental study, producing relevant results in the task of identifying relevant attributes to support educational managers. The results indicate that several factors influence student performance, such as the student's parents' education, the incentive to study, the teacher's commitment and the management style.