Impactos das mudanças climáticas na resposta hidrológica da bacia geográfica do rio Paraíba do Meio (AL/PE)

Abstract

Climate changes, at global and local levels, are associated not only natural atmospheric effects, but also to anthropogenic changes, with the release of CO2 into the lower layer of the atmosphere. The impacts of climate changes can be objects of study in hydrology through the use of mathematical models, rainfall output, with the hydro-climatic input data. Hydrological model in Geographic Information System - SIG, used in hydrologic studies of watersheds to predict and measure the system response to external conditions and interest of a watershed. The integration of SIG with hydrological information gave the possibility to obtain distributed information with a response of flow in watershed in different locations has been explored in distributed hydrological modeling. The objective of this study was to evaluate the MGB-IPH model (Modelo de Grandes Bacias) watershed in Paraíba do Meio River, influence of climate change predicted on Climate Change Panel - IPCC. The hydrological model for large basin, MGB / IPH was applied in the Paraíba do Meio river watershed and was calibrated manually. Simulations were conducted for the current scenario, and scenarios A1B and A2, on Climate Change Panel (IPCC), for the years 2071 to 2100, predicted to Brazil by CPTEC / INPE, with anomalies of precipitation and temperature. The simulations for the climate change scenarios showed changes in the hydrological response to Paraíba do Meio basin (AL / PE). The performance of this model was suitable for Paraíba do Meio river basin, since the previous version of the MGB was nominated for basins larger than 10,000 km2. The MGB showed significant performance in representing the current hydrologic regime even with the lack of basin rainfall stations and the estimated impacts of climate change tend to decrease water availability and increase flooding in the of the Paraíba do Meio River basin.