Análise comparativa de crescimento econômico: um estudo das elasticidades-renda e preço das exportações e das importações dos estados do Nordeste, no período de 1980-2007.

Abstract

This work has for objective to analyze the relationship among income (external and internal), exports, imports and exchange rate for the states of the northeast, in the period of 1980-2007, or be to show to what extent the volume and the growth of the exports and of the imports they have been influencing the growth of the gross domestic product of the states of the northeast, for that data will be used in dollars real(o index used as deflator it was the Índex Price Producer - PPI American year base 1980). The method to be proceeded is the estimate through logarithmic regression tends for base the model of Thirlwall(1979), that shows that the behavior of the balance of payments of an economy, specifically, of the exports, it can implicate in strong restrictions to the economic growth, because for the author, the differences in the rates of growth of the product among the world savings are not on the side of the offer, as postulated by the classic-neoclassical current, but, on the side of the demand, as postulated by the keynesian current. Being like this, it intends to point the degree of it influences of the variable export in the product, and with that to verify the Law of Thirlwall is valid in the explanation of the behavior of the economy of these states. In that sense, which she could verify it is that the income of the Northeastern states (Y) it presented behavior similar to the one of Brazil in the years 80 and 90, that is, the income of those states is not accompanying the growth of the external income (Y *), in spite of the exports they have grown more than the imports, and through this fact it can be observed the low rates of growths along the period. Finally, the results show although the exchange rate is not a significant endogenous variable to explain the exports of those states, during the observed period, indicating that they have changed their production structures, independently, from changes in exchange rate.